Exploring and quantifying plausible futures for the Niayes region in Senegal - Niayes 2040

Issues

The southern part of the Niayes region plays a central role in the economy of Senegal. It is a major employer, especially in market gardening, which meets more than 50 % of the country’s demand for fruit and vegetables. However, farming in this area faces several threats: increasing urbanisation, which is encroaching on agricultural land; the lowering of the water table due to overpumping and a decrease in rainfall; the deterioration of water and soil quality; competition for access to land between mining industries, urbanisation and agriculture; and demographic pressure, which exacerbates these different threats.
The future of the Niayes region therefore raises several questions that need urgent answers. The exploration and anticipation of future changes are essential to collectively decide on the territory desired, and to identify the actions and public policies needed to build it.

Description

This global project is divided into four parts:

• The co-development of exploratory scenarios for the future of the Niayes region and pathways to achieving each of these scenarios,
• The construction of a spatial model aimed at clarifying the scenarios with quantified indicators,
• The creation of board games to further explore the actions needed to achieve a desirable future for the participants,
• The widespread dissemination and discussion of results.

Expected changes

• The actors involved in the project will learn about the methodology for co-developing scenarios.
• These actors will be able to collectively question the future of a territory.   

Expected impacts

•  More systematic use of foresight (by decision-makers and actors in the field) to develop future scenarios will inform current decisions.