Quantifying land use options in Latin America and the Caribbean - LULAC

Issues

Stabilising climate change at 1.5°C implies reaching the target of net zero emissions by 2050. Currently, in Latin America and the Caribbean, land use and land-use change are responsible for almost half of all GHG emissions and for 31% of carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon emissions largely stem from deforestation, agriculture and livestock farming. However, all scenarios by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) mention that trade-offs in terms of land use will imply a net increase in land for food production and human settlement between 2020 and 2050. The land used for forest conservation and restoration will therefore be reduced, resulting in a net carbon emission.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, land use is also linked to economic aspects: agriculture, livestock farming, fisheries, forestry and agri-food businesses employ 15% of the labour force. Moreover, 21% of land and 19% of the GHG emissions resulting from agriculture and livestock farming are linked to exports.

Finally, with the destruction of the natural habitats of vertebrate populations, especially tropical forests, the region is currently experiencing a serious crisis in terms of biodiversity.

Description

The goal of the study is to quantify the impact of strategies concerning land-use change and dietary change on yields, the mitigation of GHG emissions, the agricultural economic value of production and exports, and natural habitats in Latin America and the Caribbean. Additional indicators, concerning economic consequences (employment and profitability), adaptation to climate change (water use, erosion, resilience to extreme events, diversification), and biodiversity, can also be examined. The feasibility of the various land-use change options for the different actors, distinguishing between producers whose production is for own consumption, for local markets or for exports must also be assessed, differentiating between the risks and opportunities by types of actors, who may not be the same size or have the same access to credit.

The project, focusing on Latin American and the Caribbean, aims to:

• Obtain national and regional data sources from land use experts;
• Quantify the current impact of agriculture and livestock production units on GHG emissions;
• Explore how different hazards (changes in global demand, climate change, etc.) and social choices (diets, location of crops and livestock production units, import-export strategies, technological choices in agriculture and livestock production) will influence the result of land use systems by 2050 in terms of GHG emissions, food consumption and, where possible, income, employment and biodiversity conservation;
• Assess how uncertainties and the lack of data may affect the final analysis results, and prioritise the missing data that should be collected;
• Make recommendations for policymakers to implement decarbonisation strategies for land use.

Expected results

The impacts will be linked to the dissemination of the study (method and results), with a draft academic article as the main output. The article will be sent to peer-reviewed journals for publication, targeting the leading multidisciplinary journals